Recently, a monkey infiltrated a substation in Sri Lanka, leading to a six-hour power outage that darkened the entire island nation. This significant blackout compelled medical facilities and water purification plants to rely on backup generators to sustain critical services, while traffic congestion ensued due to non-functional traffic signals.

In contrast to many developing nations, Sri Lanka boasts substantial power generation capacity, even during peak times. However, like numerous countries, it suffers from an aging power grid, making it prone to extensive outages.

Unfortunately, the situation in the United States is similarly dire, as rolling blackouts, freezing temperatures in homes, and soaring electricity costs have become commonplace. A few decades ago, widespread power outages in the U.S. were infrequent, typically regarded as rare incidents. Yet, these mass blackouts have evolved into a typical aspect of contemporary American life, with outages rising by 64% since the early 2000s and weather-related interruptions surging by 78%. An analysis reveals that the U.S. now experiences more power outages than any other developed nation, with residents in the upper Midwest losing power for an average of 92 minutes annually, compared to just 4 minutes in Japan.

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Climate change and severe weather events are major contributors to this troubling scenario. However, the U.S. is not alone in facing these challenges; Europe is equally affected by the impacts of a shifting climate, if not more so. A deeper examination of the issue highlights a potential culprit: natural gas.

In the past two decades, the shale revolution has unleashed a wave of inexpensive natural gas, facilitating the transition from coal to gas-fired power generation. Natural gas is often praised as a “bridge fuel” as the world gradually shifts away from coal toward renewable energy, largely due to its cleaner emissions. Currently, natural gas accounts for approximately 41% of U.S. electricity generation, significantly higher than its 19.6% share in Europe.

However, the stark reality is that even the most modern natural gas plants are demonstrating a high failure rate during extreme weather conditions when compared to other energy generation methods. During the recent Arctic Blast, gas units were responsible for 63% of failures while constituting only 44% of the total installed capacity. The U.S. possesses the largest network of gas facilities and pipelines globally, yet these infrastructures were not designed with the potential for extreme weather in mind. Furthermore, many gas plants are not properly winterized and often depend on a single pipeline for fuel supply, with some generators lacking the capability to utilize alternative fuels or maintain adequate backup gas supplies in emergencies.

Alarmingly, even top-performing gas generation facilities are showing significant vulnerability. PJM Interconnection LLC oversees the largest power grid in the country, serving around 65 million people across 13 states and Washington, D.C. Typically regarded as one of the most reliable grids due to its robust operating reserves and abundant shale gas, PJM encountered challenges during the winter blast on December 23, 2022. It declared a “maximum generation emergency action,” expecting standby facilities to ramp up to full power. While nearly 20% of gas plants operated at full capacity for at least an hour, over 20% never exceeded half capacity, and many dropped to zero output at times during the crisis. A spokesperson for PJM acknowledged that the performance of generation during the storm “was not acceptable” and emphasized the need for all resources to perform reliably when required.

It’s important to note that PJM fared better than several neighboring grids, which reported widespread outages or blackouts. This situation raises concerns about the ability of the U.S.’s fragmented and aging grids to withstand increasing electricity demands. During the crisis, many new-model combined-cycle gas plants experienced failures, citing mechanical issues and problems in starting operations. Some faced difficulties in sourcing gas due to frozen wells or shortages in pipeline pressure, while others were unable to secure gas because utility pipelines prioritized domestic customers over power generation.

“We are facing a crisis that is approaching faster than anticipated,” warned Mark Christie, a member of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, in an interview with Bloomberg.

The Path to Renewables and Grid Enhancements

Some experts contend that expanding the existing gas infrastructure might address current issues. However, many advocate for upgrading the grid and adopting more renewable energy sources as sustainable solutions.

For years, the U.S. has relied on a deteriorating electrical grid that is increasingly unstable and underfunded, hindering the nation’s transition to a new energy future. Despite its status as the wealthiest nation globally, the U.S. ranks only 13th in infrastructure quality.

The U.S. power grid is indeed considered a critical weak link in the ongoing energy transition. A study by UC Berkeley and GridLab indicates that it is economically feasible for renewable energy to supply 90% of a dependable grid by 2035, relying on natural gas for merely 10% of annual electricity generation. Unfortunately, while renewable energy sources have expanded rapidly, the aging grid is incapable of fully integrating these resources, resulting in substantial lost potential.

Funding remains a significant hurdle. A Wood Mackenzie analysis estimated a staggering $4.5 trillion investment would be necessary for the U.S. to achieve complete decarbonization, including constructing and operating new generation facilities, upgrading transmission and distribution systems, facilitating capacity payments, and developing advanced grid technologies. In light of this, the $13 billion allocated by the previous administration to upgrade the national grid appears minimal.

FERC’s Major Electric Transmission Upgrade Approval

Fortunately, there’s hope for revitalizing the U.S.’s aging power infrastructure, particularly under the current administration. Last year, the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) greenlit the first major electric transmission policy update in over ten years, which is anticipated to expedite the development of new interregional lines to accommodate growing demand. This new regulation represents FERC’s first long-term transmission planning update and is seen as a significant achievement for the administration’s ambitious objective of sourcing 80% of the nation’s electricity from renewable sources by 2030 and achieving 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035.

“This rule cannot be implemented soon enough,” asserted FERC Chairman Willie Phillips, who supported the final rule, in a statement to Reuters. “The urgency to ensure the reliability and affordability of our grid is paramount. We are at a transformative moment for the electric grid amid a considerable rise in load demands,” he noted, citing increased domestic manufacturing, the growth of data centers, and escalating extreme weather events.

Under the Biden administration, FERC has focused on reforming how new electric transmission projects are sanctioned and funded. The final rule mandates that participants in transmission projects outline plans for sharing costs among states and companies while assessing the long-term, cost-effective viability of proposals.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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