In an impressive display of civic engagement, Germany recorded a historic voter turnout of 83.5% during the early federal election on February 23, marking the highest participation since the country’s unification in 1990.

Who emerged victorious in Germany’s election?

Following the completion of counting, early results indicate that the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), headed by chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, together with its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), has clinched the election.

Meanwhile, the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured the second position.

Which parties saw the most significant changes in voter support?

The notable winner in terms of voter growth was the right-wing populist AfD, which nearly doubled its vote count.

On the other hand, the Social Democrats (SPD), led by current Chancellor Olaf Scholz, recorded the worst performance in a federal election, experiencing their largest loss of votes in comparison to past elections.

How are seats allocated in Germany’s parliament?

Voters in Germany cast two votes: one for a local candidate and the other for a party’s state list. The first vote elects a candidate from their electoral district, determining half of the parliament’s overall composition, ensuring every district is represented. The second vote influences the party strengths within the lower house, the Bundestag, and determines how many candidates from each party’s state list secure seats.

The Bundestag comprises 630 seats, which are distributed based on each party’s share of the vote. For a party to enter parliament, it must obtain at least 5% of the votes, although there is an exception for parties that win individual mandates in at least three electoral districts, thereby exempting them from the 5% rule.

What types of coalition governments could be formed in Germany?

Despite winning the most votes, the CDU/CSU does not hold an absolute majority and is projected to gain 208 seats in the Bundestag. To establish the next government, they must ally with another party to reach the 316-seat threshold required for a majority. The CDU has dismissed the possibility of a coalition with the AfD, labeling itself as the “firewall” against the far-right. This narrows their options to forming a two-way grand coalition with the SPD or a three-party coalition that includes the Greens, depending on the final seat allocation. Coalition outcomes can be evaluated using the coalition calculator.

Voter migration: How did party affiliations shift?

The recent election revealed notable shifts in voter allegiance. A significant number of voters transitioned from the center-left SPD to the conservative CDU/CSU, with around 2 million votes changing hands. Additionally, The Left Party recorded gains by attracting voters from both the SPD and the Greens, acquiring 560,000 and 700,000 votes respectively.

How did age demographics influence voting trends?

Younger voters aged 18 to 24 leaned toward the extremes, casting a higher percentage of their votes for the far-right AfD and the Left Party. Traditional parties like the SPD and CDU received their lowest levels of support from this age group, while the Greens saw a decline in their youth vote. Conversely, older voters (60 and above) were more inclined to support the SPD and CDU.

Gender voting patterns

Men generally exhibited a preference for conservative parties, favoring the CDU and AfD, whereas women largely supported the SPD, Greens, and the Left Party. The disparity in voting behavior between genders was minor, typically ranging between 2-3%, with a notable 7% gap for the AfD.

How educational background affected voting choices

Individuals without a college degree tended to favor conservative parties, primarily the CDU and AfD, followed by the SPD. Those with basic educational qualifications were twice as likely to vote for the AfD compared to those with higher education. Voters holding advanced degrees were significantly more inclined to support the Greens and the Left Party.

Regional voting disparities

Nationally, the AfD garnered roughly 20% of the overall vote, but results varied widely across regions. The party, often categorized as right-wing extremist, has become the dominant political force in eastern Germany. In states like Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia, the AfD led with over 30% of second votes, significantly outpacing both the CDU and SPD.

In Thuringia, known for Björn Höcke, who was convicted for using banned Nazi slogans, the party received over 38% of the vote, nearly doubling that of the CDU. Berlin stands out as an exception in the former East, with the Left Party obtaining the largest number of votes.

The disparity between eastern and western voting patterns extends to the CDU and SPD, with the CDU/CSU achieving stronger performance in the southern, western, and northern regions. Bavaria, for instance, saw the CSU winning all 47 constituencies.

The SPD performed best in the north and west, where its traditional pro-labor policies continue to resonate. For the first time, the AfD secured a majority of second votes in two constituencies located in western Germany, specifically in Gelsenkirchen and Kaiserslautern

, although in both instances, SPD candidates claimed the most first votes.

Stay tuned as DW updates this article with the latest election results.

Contributors: Michaela Cavanagh and Kate Hairsine