Resilient third baseman Alex Bregman is set to part ways with the Houston Astros. He has reportedly reached a three-year agreement valued at $120 million with the Boston Red Sox, as noted by Chandler Rome. This contract allows for opt-outs following each season, although the team has yet to officially announce the signing.

The Astros drafted Bregman as the No. 2 overall pick in the 2015 MLB Draft. His departure marks another significant loss for Houston, following the exits of notable players such as Carlos Correa, Dallas Keuchel, and George Springer, who similarly transitioned to new teams. Currently, Jose Altuve stands out as the sole member of the Astros’ successful 2017-2022 squad to have remained with the organization throughout his career.

As Bregman approaches his 31st birthday this March, he is coming off a challenging season, finishing 2024 with a .260/.315/.453 batting line and 26 home runs. Although this marks his highest home run total since his impressive 41-homer season in 2019, his on-base percentage of .315 represents a significant dip of 35 points from his previous season. Additionally, Bregman’s walk rate fell to 6.9% last year, considerably lower than his career average of 11.9%.

According to our R.J. Anderson, Bregman is ranked as the third-best free agent available this offseason, with this analysis:

Bregman has been one of the most effective third basemen in recent history, accumulating the sixth-highest WAR for the position since 2020. He stands above Rafael Devers and is only behind the elite names in the current era of third basemen. While his career thus far has been impressive, it is essential to look ahead. Upon further examination of Bregman, concerns about his batting have surfaced. Although he is adept at making contact, doubts linger regarding other aspects of his performance. Statcast data suggests that he may have at least 30 fewer career home runs if the same batted balls were hit in different MLB parks. This isn’t a flaw of Bregman—successful players play to the strengths of their home field—but it raises questions about the consistency of his power. Additionally, his walk rate plummeted to a career-low 6.9% last season as he became more aggressive at the plate. Bregman’s skills both offensively and defensively are still valuable, but there’s a bit more uncertainty surrounding him than his reputation might imply.

How will Bregman fit with the Red Sox?

The Red Sox are optimistic that Bregman’s batting prowess will adapt well to the accommodating confines of Fenway Park, known for favoring right-handed hitters. Since 2021, he has consistently ranked among the league leaders in pulled fly ball percentage, and as a right-handed slugger in Houston, he frequently sent balls into the Crawford Boxes.

Other than Fenway, there is no venue that aligns with Bregman’s hitting profile quite like Houston. While the data set is limited, he boasts an impressive career batting average of .375/.490/.750 at Fenway across 98 plate appearances, with seven home runs in 21 games.

In Boston, there’s a possibility Bregman could transition to second base, allowing Rafael Devers to retain his position at third. Although Bregman has primarily played third base throughout his Major League career, he also has experience in the middle infield. Regardless of where he ultimately plays, his signing adds a significant chapter to a busy offseason for the Red Sox. Earlier this winter, the team secured Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler to fortify their rotation and added Aroldis Chapman to enhance their bullpen.

The Red Sox concluded the 2024 season with a record of 81-81, marking their third consecutive year out of playoff contention.