In response to the rare, yet serious concern of a potential asteroid impact, NASA is utilizing its advanced Webb Space Telescope to keep a close watch on the recently identified asteroid 2024 YR4. This space rock poses a slight risk of colliding with Earth in 2032.

According to latest data, asteroid 2024 YR4 currently holds a 2.1% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. While these odds favor us, there are no other significant asteroids known to have an impact probability exceeding 1%, as per NASA. Acknowledging the seriousness of this threat, NASA plans to gather further observations of the asteroid with the Webb telescope in March to refine these estimates, as revealed in a recent update.

The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile initially discovered 2024 YR4 on December 27, 2024. Shortly after its detection, its impact probability was estimated at 1.3%. However, subsequent observations increased its likelihood of striking Earth to 2.3% just yesterday, before slightly adjusting to 2.1% this morning. These figures remain preliminary, underscoring the need for more observations.

At the time of its discovery, asteroid 2024 YR4 was situated 515,116 miles (829,000 kilometers) from Earth. Presently, the asteroid is moving away from our planet, with its next close approach scheduled for December 2028. Ground-based telescopes part of the International Asteroid Warning Network are ongoing in their monitoring and will continue until April, at which point the asteroid will be too faint to track until June 2028. To assist in this endeavor, the Webb Telescope will capture images from space.

With the data collected by Webb, astronomers aim to refine their estimates regarding the asteroid’s size and characteristics. Initial measurements based on its reflected light suggest that the asteroid is between 130 and 300 feet wide (40 and 90 meters). While not enough to cause cataclysmic destruction, a potential impact would unleash around 8 megatons of energy—over 500 times the force of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945, and similar to the energy generated by the Tunguska event in 1908, according to NASA.

NASA considers any asteroid potentially hazardous if it measures between 100 and 165 feet (30 to 50 meters) in diameter and its orbit brings it within 5 million miles (8 million kilometers) of Earth’s trajectory. Asteroid 2024 YR4 has reached the forefront of NASA’s Sentry risk list, which monitors all known near-Earth asteroids with some probability of future impact. It is currently the sole asteroid classified as a 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, indicating it “Merits Attention by Astronomers.”

Historically, several objects have risen on this risk list only to later drop off after new data emerged. As NASA mentioned in its update, “New observations may lead to reassessment of this asteroid to a level of 0 as more information is obtained.” Here’s hoping for positive news!