Abdelrahman
Space agencies have once again heightened concerns regarding a potentially catastrophic asteroid, referred to as 2024 YR4, which could impact Earth in 2032. NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) assess that this asteroid currently has a approximately 3% chance of striking our planet.
Recent evaluations show an increase from the 2.6% likelihood assigned by NASA earlier in February, and a significant rise from the initial 1% chance estimated when the asteroid was first detected.
Despite this increased probability, scientists maintain that the asteroid is unlikely to hit Earth. However, this estimation represents the highest risk ever linked to an asteroid by NASA and ESA.
According to NASA, the probability of 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth stands at 3.1%, translating to about a 1 in 32 risk of impact, while the European Space Agency estimates it slightly lower at 2.8%. Both assessments have been revised upward since the week of February 10, when NASA initially rated the asteroid’s threat at 2.2%.
If 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, it would occur on December 22, 2032. Scientists believe that as further studies are conducted, the chances of impact may eventually decline.
In preparation for potential worst-case scenarios, space agencies are taking proactive measures. For instance, Beijing is forming a “planetary defense” team, aiming to employ tactics akin to NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) to counteract the threat posed by YR4.
Agencies are monitoring the asteroid closely, which measures between 130 to 300 feet in diameter. Its size could generate an explosive force comparable to that of a nuclear bomb upon impact.
As noted by CBS News space expert Bill Harwood, while 2024 YR4 wouldn’t be as catastrophic as the asteroid that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs, its impact would still result in severe disaster at a local scale. Therefore, many are hopeful that this scenario remains unlikely.
