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Just last spring, in this very space, we penned these memorable words:

In recent years, the traditional blockbuster trade during spring training has become rarer than a Myles Straw home run trot.

Thankfully, we added an important addendum: But perhaps not this year.

Fast forward just 20 days later, and guess what happened? Dylan Cease was traded from the White Sox to the Padres, proving that the blockbuster spring training deal is very much alive.

Keep this in mind as we move through the upcoming weeks. We recently conducted our annual spring preview survey, gathering insights from 32 executives, former executives, coaches, and scouts. One section stood out in particular.

We asked our respondents which players they believed were most likely to be on the trading block this spring.

Typically, this question yields a relatively short list of predictable salary dumps and a few veteran players being edged out by prospects from Keith Law’s Top 100 Prospects list. However, this year was anything but typical.

In fact, we set a modern record for this survey with 20 names brought to light. Yes, 20, and we assure you that you’re familiar with every single one of them.

So, who are the players deemed most likely to be traded? We’ll break it down in two parts, starting with the four frontrunners at the top of the list.

Dylan Cease (Padres) — 12
Nolan Arenado (Cardinals) — 9
Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox) — 6
Jordan Montgomery (Diamondbacks) — 4

There were several intriguing names further down the list. We’ll cover them later, but for now, let’s focus on the players who generated the most buzz.

Will the Padres face a Cease-and-Desist?


Will Dylan Cease be traded two springs in a row? It seems less likely now. (Geoff Burke / Imagn Images)

It’s rare for a player to win the Most Likely to Get Traded title two years running. Yet that’s the situation with Cease, whose value and availability have been highlighted during the last two offseasons.

Why wouldn’t he be valuable? At just 29 years old and set to earn $13.75 million this season, his affordability is a big plus. Additionally, he’s the only pitcher in the league who has struck out more hitters than Cease over the last four seasons (891 strikeouts).

However, considering the voting mostly took place before the Padres bolstered their rotation on Wednesday by signing right-hander Nick Pivetta, it raises the question: Is Cease still the most likely player to be traded this spring?

Moreover, let’s also consider: Is he even the most likely Padre to be traded this season?

This second question carries weight, as four different Padres received votes in the survey: batting champion Luis Arraez (two votes), starter Michael King (two votes), closer Robert Suarez (two votes), and Cease.

Early signals pointed toward a significant sell-off, with Cease as the centerpiece. Multiple executives reported ongoing discussions with the Padres about him. One summarized the situation with a simple comment: “Pick a Padre.”

Yet, in recent days, the narrative has changed. As Dennis Lin noted in The Athletic, the Padres began indicating to other teams that they might retain both Cease and King.

When asked if the Pivetta signing influenced the likelihood of the Padres trading a starter, one American League executive responded, “I don’t think so anymore. It feels like they’re striving to win.”

Another executive, who initially voted for Cease, now believes that a trade is improbable, stating that the Padres wouldn’t move Cease for prospects. Any trade would only happen for “a perfect need-for-need fit,” said the executive. A third mentioned that the Padres no longer seemed eager to execute major payroll cuts.

This indicates that the answer to the question, Who is the most likely Padre to be traded? has shifted away from Cease. It’s most likely now Suarez, as the team aims to shed his $10 million contract.

From last year’s experience, we know that A.J. Preller, the Padres’ president of baseball operations, has no qualms about making significant, potentially roster-changing trades during spring training. So it’s crucial to keep an eye on this team all spring long.

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What Impact Does Bregman Have on Arenado?

Nolan Arenado was the runner-up in our survey—no surprise there. The Cardinals made a point this winter to showcase his availability, practically advertising it.

However, two significant factors hover over this sale: Arenado’s no-trade clause, which he utilized in December to block a potential trade to Houston, and his now-rival Alex Bregman.

Bregman has recently joined Arenado’s preferred team, the Boston Red Sox. Furthermore, Bregman took his time selecting a team, eliminating various other opportunities. So where does this leave Arenado? Unless injury strikes this spring, it’s almost certainly a return to St. Louis.

The teams that make sense—Toronto and Seattle—are not places Arenado would likely agree to join. Conversely, the teams he favors don’t seem to need him, especially after the least productive season of his career.

“If the market were thriving, he’d likely already have been traded,” remarked one rival executive, noting that the Cardinals were actively attempting to deal him.

As for how comfortable Arenado would feel in St. Louis after all this speculation? One executive’s assessment was deadpan: “More comfortable than Toronto!”

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Could Robert Be Next?


Luis Robert Jr. remains under team control through the 2027 season. (Rick Osentoski / Imagn Images)

If the White Sox managed to pull off the monumental deal of the year last spring, who’s to say they can’t pull off something equally impressive this spring? Not the six voters who included Robert on their Most Likely to Get Traded ballots.

This only reinforces what we’ve suspected for some time: he tops the White Sox’s Everything Must Go list. But does this guarantee a trade in the coming weeks? Don’t count your Lou Malnati’s Deep Dish gift card just yet.

The White Sox are still facing the same challenges in moving Robert that they encountered in July and throughout the winter. Coming off his worst season yet (.224/.278/.379), he’s valued like a star. Can a strong spring change that perception? Sorry, we don’t see it happening.

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Montgomery Needs a Fresh Start

After finishing the season with the worst ERA (6.23) and WHIP (1.65) among pitchers with at least 110 innings, Jordan Montgomery has faced his fair share of challenges. His performance led to criticism from his owner, and the Arizona Diamondbacks have since added Corbin Burnes to further cement his exit from the rotation.

This suggests a divorce between Montgomery and the Diamondbacks is imminent. Here’s how we know the D-Backs have been ramping up their efforts to trade him:

• He received zero votes on the first 24 ballots cast in this Most Likely to Get Traded survey.

• Following that, he garnered four votes from the last eight voters within a 48-hour window.

Does this sudden surge in votes seem unusual to you? It doesn’t appear random to us! Although he’s currently a difficult trade, Montgomery could elevate his value with a standout spring performance.

So while he may not have been the favorite in this survey, who is more likely to be traded than him before March wraps up? We’d wager it’s nobody.

Other Players Receiving Votes

Now, let’s review the additional players who appeared on the Most Likely to Get Traded ballots, excluding the four frontrunners and other Padres we’ve mentioned. Unless noted otherwise, each received one vote:

Blue Jays — Vlad Guerrero Jr. (2), Bo Bichette

Mets — Starling Marte, Jeff McNeil

Red Sox — Triston Casas, Masataka Yoshida, David Hamilton

Yankees — Marcus Stroman

Marlins — Sandy Alcantara (2)

Cubs — Seiya Suzuki

Giants — Mike Yastrzemski

Phillies — Alec Bohm

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Cardinals — Steven Matz

It’s entirely possible that no one from this list changes teams by the time Opening Day arrives. However, remember that:

All of these names originate from individuals deeply involved in the sport, not from casual opinions. So when they cast their votes, we should all take notice.

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(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Brandon Sloter / Getty Images, Dilip Vishwanat / Getty Images)

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