BRUSSELS (AP) — Growing increasingly concerned about shifting U.S. security priorities, a coalition of European nations is discreetly formulating a strategy to deploy troops to Ukraine aimed at supporting a potential peace agreement with Russia.

Leading this initiative are Britain and France, although specifics remain under wraps. The nations involved are cautious about revealing too much, fearing it might give Russian President Vladimir Putin an upper hand should he choose to enter negotiations to conclude the ongoing conflict he initiated three years ago.

It is evident that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy requires assurances for his country’s safety until a lasting peace is established. Although NATO membership—long promised to Ukraine—would provide optimal security, this option has been off the table by the U.S.

“I won’t delve into specifics, but I acknowledge that for peace to succeed, there must be a certain level of security assurance for Ukraine, and the U.K. is prepared to contribute,” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer cautiously stated on Thursday.

European Nations Plan the Way Forward

A year ago, European leaders commenced discussions on the necessary forces, but urgency has intensified amid fears that U.S. President Donald Trump could bypass their interests—and possibly Ukraine’s—to secure a deal with Putin.

While many questions linger, one significant query remains: What role will the United States assume?

A Strategic Assembly in Brussels

In December, shortly after Trump won the election but before his inauguration, several leaders and ministers convened with Zelenskyy at NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte’s Brussels residence. Participants included representatives from Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Poland, alongside key European Union officials.

The discussions expanded on a concept suggested by French President Emmanuel Macron in early 2024. His earlier statement, which did not rule out the deployment of troops in Ukraine, drew significant backlash, especially from Germany and Poland’s leaders.

Initially, Macron seemed isolated; however, his proposition has gained momentum since then.

Ultimately, the characteristics of any deployed force and its participants will hinge upon the conditions of a future settlement, among other factors.

Italy faces constitutional constraints regarding the deployment of its forces, while the Netherlands and Germany would require parliamentary approval, which may change with the new government following the Feb. 23 elections. Poland is also being cautious due to lingering historical tensions with Ukraine dating back to World War II.

“We are still in the very early stages,” commented Hanno Pevklur, Estonia’s defense minister, to The Associated Press during the Munich Security Conference.

Pevkurl emphasized the necessity for European allies to comprehend the situation along Ukraine’s contact line before moving forward with plans. If both Russia and Ukraine can scale their forces down to “a couple of thousand” on each side, “it shouldn’t pose a challenge for Europe to be present there,” according to Pevkurl, although a sustained conflict complicates matters significantly.

Focus on a Strong Security Force Rather than Basic Peacekeepers

The composition and function of the force will largely depend on the nature of the peace agreement reached. Should Russia and Ukraine find common ground as negotiations advance, fewer security measures might be necessary, potentially leading to a smaller contingent.

However, experts caution that Europeans must prepare to deploy a heavily equipped and substantial military presence instead of a minimal team of peacekeepers like the United Nations “blue helmets.”

“It has to be a legitimate force capable of showing Russia that any provocation will be met with a robust response. Since Russia tends to challenge agreements, this is crucial,” asserted Ben Hodges, former Commanding General of U.S. Army Europe, in a recent European Policy Centre think tank event.

“If a force is deployed, it must include airpower, significant ground forces, drones, counter-drone capabilities, and air and missile defense. Anything less could leave them vulnerable,” he added.

Retired French General Dominique Trinquand echoed these sentiments, stating that U.N. peacekeepers are more suitable for “stabilized zones.” He commented on the logistical challenges of organizing and deploying a multinational operation, which could take about a year.

In addition, investments in training Ukrainian soldiers and strengthening Ukraine’s defense sector are essential, as pointed out by Latvia Defense Minister Andris Sprūds.

Determining the Required Force Size

The scale and position of the European contingent will be influenced by the outcome of the peace deal. Zelenskyy has called for a force of at least 100,000 to 150,000 troops, while media reports have speculated about a possible deployment of 30,000 to 40,000 personnel. However, diplomats remain tight-lipped about these figures.

Ukraine is also seeking air support in addition to ground troops.

Challenges are evident, as assembling a large-scale force would be a significant endeavor that likely couldn’t be accomplished rapidly, as stated by Macron in an interview with the Financial Times, describing the idea of a massive troop deployment as “far-fetched.”

“We need to pursue realistic, considered, and well-negotiated strategies,” he insisted.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth highlighted this week the necessity for “strong international oversight along the contact line,” which stretches approximately 1,000 kilometers (600 miles). However, European allies are wary, as this would demand significant troop numbers.

Nearly all parties acknowledge the importance of some form of American involvement, as European military forces have historically depended on U.S. logistics, air support, and other capabilities.

The U.S. Establishes Precedents

During a meeting at NATO headquarters on Wednesday, Hegseth outlined the conditions under which the U.S. might agree to a mission aimed at delivering substantial security guarantees to Ukraine and preventing the resurgence of conflict.

“Any security assurances must involve capable European and non-European troops,” Hegseth explained to nearly 50 representatives from Ukraine’s Western allies. If troops are committed to Ukraine, he noted, “they should operate under a non-NATO framework.”

Putin has voiced his opposition to NATO’s expansion toward Russia’s borders, making it improbable for him to accept any operation spearheaded by the alliance.

Hegseth clarified that any participating European allies would not benefit from NATO’s collective security promise in the event of an attack. He reaffirmed, “There will be no U.S. personnel deployed to Ukraine.”

Details regarding the U.S. role remain undisclosed.

From Ukraine’s viewpoint, a solely European-led effort would be insufficient. “Any security guarantees cannot materialize without U.S. involvement,” warned Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha on Thursday.

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Contributors to this report include Associated Press journalists Emma Burrows in Munich, Germany, Angela Charlton, John Leicester in Paris, and Jill Lawless in London.