In January, SpaceX’s Starship catastrophe resulted in debris raining down on the Caribbean, prompting the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to halt the rocket’s program temporarily and initiate a formal inquiry. This action marked the latest in a series of measures taken by the agency against Industry leader SpaceX.

“Safety is the cornerstone of our operations at the FAA,” stated the agency’s chief counsel in September, following the proposal of $633,000 in penalties for violations linked to two prior launches. “Companies that fail to adhere to safety mandates will face repercussions.”

In response, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk reacted promptly and decisively, accusing the FAA of engaging in “lawfare” and warning of legal action over what he termed “regulatory overreach.” He emphasized, “Humanity will remain limited to Earth unless the FAA undergoes radical reform!” Musk expressed on X.

Currently, Musk finds himself in a prime position to instigate those changes. As a prominent advisor to President Donald Trump and the head of the newly established Department of Government Efficiency, he is spearheading efforts to cut costs and reduce regulations.

While the specific adjustments his panel may propose regarding the FAA remain uncertain, current and former personnel are preparing for Musk to direct his attention toward AST, the office that oversees SpaceX’s operations. “There’s a palpable sense of anxiety,” said a former employee who wished to remain anonymous due to the sensitive nature of the subject.

Musk and SpaceX have been vocal critics of AST, which is tasked with licensing commercial rocket launches and ensuring public safety. Following the fines imposed in September, SpaceX forwarded a letter to Congress, condemning AST for its sluggish pace in adapting to the rapidly growing space sector. That same month, Musk urged FAA leader Mike Whitaker to resign and remarked during a conference in Los Angeles, “It should not take longer to process papers than it does to construct a massive rocket.”

The FAA appears to have taken notice of Musk’s remarks. On Trump’s inauguration day, Whitaker resigned, leaving the agency’s leadership earlier than expected. Experts predict heightened pressure in the coming months as Musk continues to push for a robust launch schedule for Starship, the most potent rocket ever constructed.

Whitaker did not respond to requests for comment.

Experts indicate that one significant challenge for AST is its capacity to manage its responsibilities effectively.

Over the past six years, the office has experienced a staggering sixfold increase in launches, surging from 26 in 2019 to 157 in the previous year — with SpaceX at the forefront. Meanwhile, AST has not expanded sufficiently in terms of staffing and budget. With approximately 160 employees, the office is responsible for overseeing regular flights by multiple private rocket firms — sometimes several per day — transporting satellites, aiding astronaut missions, supporting national security efforts, and conducting space tourism ventures.

“The volume of launches has grown exponentially,” noted George Nield, former leader of the office from 2008 to 2018. “There’s no indication any of this will slow down.”

In evaluating each launch, AST’s team assesses the risks posed to “uninvolved” members of the public and their property. They also examine potential environmental impacts, potential disruption to other air traffic such as commercial flights, and confirm that any rocket payload has received the necessary approvals. Additionally, the office handles licensing for space vehicle reentries, though these incidents are currently less frequent.

On average, this evaluation process requires five months. “Taking adequate time to execute the necessary work to protect public safety is crucial, and we aim to do it well,” Nield highlighted. He cautioned that diminishing AST or dissolving it entirely could lead to catastrophic outcomes. “If a rocket veers off course due to a lack of proper checks and a major disaster ensues, it would trigger a massive backlash.”

However, Musk has criticized AST for prioritizing “irrelevant issues that don’t affect safety.” He insists that quick progression is essential for his company, which often undergoes failures to gain insights and refine processes—a philosophy termed “rapid iterative development” within SpaceX. Yet, this approach carries inherent risks. For instance, last month, after the Starship incident, numerous aircraft had to divert to avoid debris, while residents in the Turks and Caicos reported finding fragments scattered along roads and beaches, with the FAA noting minor vehicle damage.

SpaceX has confirmed it is currently examining the data to ascertain the incident’s cause and has pledged to conduct a rigorous investigation in collaboration with the FAA, implementing necessary corrective measures for future Starship tests.

Nonetheless, Musk minimized the explosion’s significance, stating it was “barely a bump in the road.” Additionally, he appeared to disregard safety issues by sharing a video showcasing the flaming debris field, captioned, “Success may be unpredictable, but entertainment is assured!” He further remarked that there was no indication that the accident would delay plans for the next Starship launch later this month, despite the ongoing FAA investigation.

Moriba Jah, an aerospace engineering professor at the University of Texas, characterized Musk’s attitude as “reckless… at the very least,” given the public’s concern over the falling rocket debris, which left a trail of smoke and fire as it descended over the islands.

“The fact that he is now in a position to oversee the very activities for which he seeks approvals is a severe conflict of interest I’ve rarely encountered in my career, and it’s perplexing,” Jah remarked, having served on a federal advisory committee for AST.

ProPublica did not receive a response from the White House concerning DOGE’s strategic plans for AST. Administration officials referred to Trump’s remarks, who stated last week that in case of a conflict between Musk’s corporate interests and his governmental role, “we won’t permit him to move forward with it.” Trump’s press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, also mentioned that Musk “will recuse himself from those contracts” as needed.

Both Musk and SpaceX declined to answer queries.

Jah pointed out that Musk and others pushing for minimal regulations exhibit what he terms a “launch, baby, launch mentality,” which could steer AST in an undesirable direction.

Industry figures and congressional members have criticized the FAA as overly cautious, arguing that it hampers innovation.

“With nations such as China aiming to surpass our space achievements, it is crucial that we streamline our procedures, grant prompt approvals, lessen regulatory burdens, and propel innovative space concepts forward,” remarked Rep. Brian Babin, a Texas Republican and the incoming chair of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, during a September hearing. He expressed concern that the FAA’s regulations might lead to “unnecessary delays” in the mission to return astronauts to the moon.

Babin did not respond to inquiries regarding AST.

Sean Duffy, the new transportation secretary under Trump, has indicated a commitment to adopting a more business-friendly stance.

During his confirmation hearing last month, when Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas criticized the FAA’s enforcement action against SpaceX and queried Duffy if he would “commit to reviewing these penalties and broadly addressing bureaucratic overreach while expediting launch approvals,” Duffy affirmed he would. “I pledge to review the situation and follow up on the developments at the FAA concerning launch processes,” he responded.

Duffy later mentioned he had spoken with Musk regarding airspace reforms and is looking to DOGE to “assist in advancing our aviation infrastructure”—a statement that drew immediate criticism from Sen. Maria Cantwell of Washington, who labeled Musk’s involvement in FAA matters a conflict of interest.

The Department of Transportation did not make Duffy available for an interview, and the FAA has not addressed ProPublica’s written inquiries despite multiple attempts for commentary.

Rep. Zoe Lofgren of California, the leading Democrat on the Science committee, noted that bipartisan support exists for streamlining commercial space launch regulations.

Nonetheless, she emphasized the necessity of addressing the safety of crew members and individuals residing near launch sites, as well as managing noise pollution and environmental impacts. “We need a regulatory framework in place,” she stated, particularly in light of increasing launches and challenges such as space debris. “This cannot just be a lawless environment.”

The annual allocation of $42 million for AST accounts for less than 1% of the FAA’s fiscal resources.

Astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell, who monitors space launches at the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, articulated the need for AST to possess adequate resources and authority to ensure accountability among companies in light of the industry’s expansion and its increasing influence. “The government has a role to fulfill,” he stated, “and they must coordinate effectively.”

Last year, a governmental advisory committee recommended relocating AST from its position within the FAA to establish it as an independent agency within the Department of Transportation.

Advocates assert that this transition would elevate AST’s visibility and possibly attract additional resources. Industry supporters also argue that the FAA’s culture, which focuses on a zero-failure policy—a fundamental aspect of its oversight of the commercial airline sector—may not suit the nascent space industry.

AST does not necessitate the success of every mission in the traditional sense, explained Caryn Schenewerk, an industry consultant who participated in the advisory committee. “They simply can’t,” she asserted. Given the novelty of launching rockets, the office’s priority is to ensure that failures do not result in harm to anyone—not to eliminate them altogether.

Nevertheless, as launches have increased, so have issues such as the recent Starship explosion. A report from the Government Accountability Office revealed that in the three years leading up to its 2023 examination, there were roughly two dozen mishaps in commercial space launches, categorized within the industry as “catastrophic explosions and other failures.”

Though the report indicated that none of these incidents caused fatalities, serious injuries, or significant property damage to the public, there were other repercussions. For instance, the first launch of Starship in April 2023 resulted in a massive dust cloud that spread for miles in Texas. Debris, including pieces of concrete and shrapnel, fell near an environmentally sensitive migratory bird habitat close to SpaceX’s Boca Chica launchpad. Local residents have expressed concerns, with Jah commenting that “the voices of this community aren’t being taken into account.” The New York Times reported contamination in the area near a bird’s nest.

Musk responded to these concerns by stating on X: “To make amends for this grievous act, I’ll avoid omelettes for a week.”

SpaceX aims to launch the next Starship as part of an expedited schedule that the company is pressing AST to approve. The firm executed four launches of the vehicle in 2024 and has stated its intent to conduct 25 launches this year.