Auburn, Alabama, and Florida Lead SEC's Strong Position in NCAA Selection Committee's Initial Top 16 Seeds

Auburn University has dominated the college basketball scene for the past month, securing the title of the nation’s top team as per the Associated Press men’s college basketball poll. This strong performance has also caught the attention of the selection committee responsible for deciding the 68-team bracket for the NCAA Tournament, which holds the Tigers in high regard.

The Southeastern Conference (SEC) shares in this success, with Auburn being highlighted as the premier overall seed in the preliminary rankings released on Saturday. Alabama and Florida also earned the distinction of being No. 1 regional seeds. Together, they represent a powerful league, showcasing five of the top six seeds and occupying six positions in the 16-seed announcement with just a month remaining until Selection Sunday.

Duke was the only team to break the SEC’s impressive streak, claiming the No. 3 overall seed.

The Tigers have maintained their lead in the AP Top 25 for five consecutive weeks, and according to advanced metrics, they rank as follows: No. 1 on KenPom, No. 2 on Bart Torvik, and No. 3 on Evan Miyakawa. With a 13-2 record in Quadrant 1 games, they lead the field in critical postseason metrics; no other team has exceeded eight such victories.

“Among all available voters in our group, they received unanimous support,” committee chair Bubba Cunningham stated during the CBS announcement. “It’s clear that they are our top choice.”

This influence spread throughout the bracket, with Cunningham noting that five teams were strongly in contention for the top seeds. Ultimately, Tennessee was edged out, with Cunningham referencing Florida’s victory over Auburn as a decisive factor for the Gators.

Coincidentally, the reveal occurred just hours before Auburn faced its in-state rival, the Crimson Tide, in a highly-anticipated AP 1-vs-2 matchup — the first of two regular-season contests that could impact playoff positions as March approaches. Auburn triumphed in this clash with a score of 94-85.

Seed Overview

Following Tennessee, SEC member Texas A&M was named the No. 6 overall seed. Purdue and Houston followed as No. 2 regional seeds, while Iowa State ranked at No. 9 overall, joined by Kentucky, Wisconsin, and Arizona as No. 3 regional seeds.

Texas Tech, Michigan, preseason AP No. 1 Kansas, and St. John’s rounded out the top 16 as 4-seeds.

Regional Paths

Auburn looks set to secure a regional route close to home, leading the South bracket in Atlanta alongside Texas A&M, Wisconsin, and Texas Tech.

Alabama is positioned for the Midwest bracket running through Indianapolis, which would grant Purdue a home-state advantage, followed by Iowa State and Kansas.

Duke heads the East bracket, with Tennessee, Arizona, and St. John’s poised to compete nearby in Newark, New Jersey, benefitting Rick Pitino’s resurgent Red Storm.

On the other hand, Florida, standing as the sole top-16 seed west of Texas, dominates the West bracket, contending in San Francisco alongside Houston, Kentucky, and Michigan.

To enhance bracket balance, Cunningham mentioned an adjustment made by the committee, swapping the locations for Michigan and St. John’s.

The winners of each region will head to San Antonio for the Final Four, with the national semifinals slated for April 5 and the championship game set for two days later in the Alamodome.

On the Waitlist

Cunningham indicated that AP No. 11 Michigan State and No. 18 Marquette are “right in the mix” for consideration among teams just outside the top 16.

Discrepancies in Rankings

Of the top-16 seeds, the AP Top 25, KenPom, Torvik, Miyakawa, and NCAA’s NET rankings concur on 11 seeds. The differences arise with Kentucky, Wisconsin, Michigan, Kansas, and St. John’s. Notably, Michigan sits outside the top 16 across all five rankings as of midday Saturday, while Kentucky appears in three.

Texas A&M is another team with noticeable variations, seeded sixth overall despite ranking eighth in the AP Top 25. In contrast, they appear as low as 12th to 16th in KenPom, Torvik, Miyakawa, and the NET rankings.

Potential for Movement

While Saturday’s announcements provide a snapshot of the current standings, teams positioned above the top-four regional seed cutoff often maintain their status.

Since the start of the seed-reveal broadcasts in 2017, 94 out of 112 teams (83.9%) have remained among the top-16 seeds; this data excludes the 2020 season due to the pandemic-related cancellation of that year’s tournament.

Additionally, 22 of the 28 teams earning a 1-seed ultimately maintained their top line status.

The Importance of Rivalries

Cunningham, who also serves as the athletic director for North Carolina, shared a humorous moment during the announcement when he hesitated to acknowledge rival Duke’s high standing.

“I can’t do it,” Cunningham joked as he passed the card to the amused CBS announcer Adam Zucker, adding, “I would love to say something complimentary, but it’s just not possible.”