By MARCIA DUNN, AP Aerospace Writer

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — The risks associated with a newly identified asteroid have slightly increased in recent weeks, prompting astronomers around the globe to closely monitor its trajectory. However, the likelihood of it colliding with Earth remains minimal.

Recent assessments indicate a 2% probability that the asteroid designated 2024 YR4 could hit Earth in 2032. This also means there’s a substantial 98% chance it will fly by safely. As astronomers gain a clearer understanding of its orbit around the sun, the predicted risk may fluctuate, and experts anticipate that the likelihood could eventually decrease to zero.

NASA, along with the European Space Agency’s Webb Space Telescope, plans to observe this near-Earth asteroid in March before it becomes too faint to detect. After that, scientists will have to wait until 2028 for another chance to study it.

What exactly is an asteroid?

Asteroids are celestial bodies that orbit the sun, significantly smaller than planets. Scientists believe these remnants are leftover materials from the formation of our solar system around 4.6 billion years ago.

Countless asteroids reside in the space between Mars and Jupiter, forming what is known as the main asteroid belt. Occasionally, these bodies are disturbed and can drift out of this region, much like the current case.

How do experts monitor potentially hazardous asteroids?

The asteroid 2024 YR4 was located by a telescope in Chile last December, with an estimated size ranging from 130 to 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) in diameter. Observations from the Webb telescope are expected to yield more accurate measurements, according to NASA.

Initially, NASA and the European Space Agency estimated the chance of a collision to be just over 1%. As of Thursday, this figure had risen to about 2%. NASA describes this risk as “extremely low.”

Until a definitive understanding of the asteroid’s orbit is achieved, experts warn that the probabilities will continue to fluctuate, and it’s entirely possible that the predicted risks could diminish to zero.

“There’s no need for alarm. It’s simply a topic of interest,” remarked Larry Denneau, a senior software engineer in Hawaii’s asteroid impact alert system, which first identified the asteroid. “Stay calm, allow the data to unfold, and we’ll arrive at a conclusive answer.”

In 2021, NASA provided reassurance regarding another potentially concerning asteroid, Apophis, after new telescopic observations eliminated the possibility of it striking Earth in 2068.

Should we be concerned about asteroid 2024 YR4?

Experts assert that it’s far too premature to worry about this asteroid.

“There’s no reason for concern regarding the rising impact probability; it’s consistent with what we anticipated,” stated Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, via email. “We expect the impact probability to eventually drop to zero.”

Given the uncertainty surrounding the asteroid’s size and orbit, it remains unclear where it might land and what the potential consequences would be if it did collide with Earth. Should the asteroid be on the smaller side, the European Space Agency noted that any potential effects could be localized, similar to the Tunguska event, which devastated vast areas of forest in remote Siberia in 1908. Conversely, if it is closer to 330 feet (100 meters) in size, the ramifications would be considerably more severe.

Chodas explained that once the Webb Space Telescope accurately determines the asteroid’s size, NASA can better predict the possible impact consequences and the complexity of any deflection efforts.

NASA has already undertaken asteroid deflection efforts in the past. In 2022, the space agency’s Dart spacecraft deliberately collided with a benign asteroid to test planetary defense methods, successfully altering its orbit around a larger companion asteroid.