Abdelrahman
The Toronto Blue Jays’ decision not to extend a contract for first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not particularly surprising. Over the last six years, the organization has made numerous errors in attempting to forge a lasting partnership with their four-time All-Star.
With Guerrero poised to enter free agency at the conclusion of the season, the failure to reach an agreement before the team’s initial full-squad workout on Tuesday leaves open the possibility for him to explore other options. Although Guerrero has left the door ajar for a potential re-signing with the Jays, he is set to hit the open market just as he turns 27, a period during which teams like the New York Mets and New York Yankees may show interest in adding a first baseman.
General Manager Ross Atkins indicated to the media on Tuesday that the club has made significant efforts to retain Guerrero. Club President Mark Shapiro commented, “When it comes to getting a deal finalized, it’s either accomplished or it’s not.” However, neither executive provided details of the negotiation process.
The Jays originally signed Guerrero out of the Dominican Republic when he was just 16, under former GM Alex Anthopoulos. If the team finds itself out of playoff contention, they may consider trading him by the deadline, but it now appears more likely he will depart via free agency.
This would be a tough outcome for a fanbase that has come to cherish Guerrero as a homegrown talent, especially after watching the franchise miss opportunities to land stars like Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto during the last two offseasons. The relationship between Guerrero and the current front office has been far from smooth.
Initially, the Jays aimed to manipulate Guerrero’s service time early in his career. They also took him to salary arbitration in 2024 and presented him with multiple extension offers that he found inadequate over the years.
According to a source familiar with Guerrero’s history with the organization, these offers failed to reflect the evolving market dynamics. Had the Jays acted more swiftly, they likely could have secured Guerrero’s commitment for significantly less than what he now seeks.
The first major comparable contract for which the Jays lacked a substantial response was the San Diego Padres’ 14-year, $340 million deal for Fernando Tatis Jr. in February 2021. The most recent relevant contract was the New York Mets’ record-setting 15-year, $765 million agreement with Juan Soto.
It’s reasonable to infer that Guerrero is seeking a 14-year deal, just one year less than Soto, who was younger when he became a free agent. The current record for average annual value (AAV) for a first baseman stands at Miguel Cabrera’s $31 million. For Guerrero, a $35 million AAV would amount to a total of $490 million, while a $40 million AAV would elevate it to $560 million. While these figures may seem astronomical for a player with Guerrero’s build at 6-foot-2 and 245 pounds, even at the upper end, they remain over $200 million less than Soto’s deal.
The Jays also proposed an offer to Soto with a total guarantee under $700 million, according to SportsNet. Soto boasts a career OPS+ 60% above league average, making him a more consistent and accomplished hitter compared to Guerrero, whose OPS+ is 37% higher than average. Additionally, while Guerrero may be rated as below average defensively in a less valuable position, Soto also occupies a less premium outfield spot and showcases limited defensive skills.
The unsuccessful pursuit of a long-term deal by Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, despite his career OPS+ being 34% above league average, could serve as a cautionary tale for Guerrero. That said, Guerrero is a superior hitter compared to Alonso and is over four years younger. Coming off his second-best offensive season, Guerrero’s performance contrasts with Alonso’s recent decline.
Age remains a crucial factor for teams when evaluating player value. Younger free agents, such as Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Soto, tend to secure more lucrative contracts. A potential 14-year deal for Guerrero would span from his age 27 to 40 seasons, whereas Aaron Judge’s nine-year contract with the Yankees covers his age 31 to 39 seasons.
Durability also plays in Guerrero’s favor. Like his father, Vladimir Guerrero Sr., Guerrero Jr. has proven to be reliable. Guerrero Sr. played 150 or more games nine times and 140 or more in three of his 14 seasons. Remarkably, Guerrero Jr. has never been placed on the injured list, participating in all 60 games of the shortened 2020 season and averaging 159 games played since then.
The discussion surrounding Guerrero’s value will likely persevere through the 2025 season and into his free agency. In hindsight, the Blue Jays may regret not finalizing an extension earlier. The contrasting approaches of how the Jays managed Guerrero compared to how the Padres handled Tatis, particularly regarding their initial MLB promotions, starkly illustrate this point.
The Jays delayed Guerrero’s free agency by a year when they kept him in the minors for the first month of the 2019 season, a decision that was exacerbated by an oblique injury he suffered during spring training. Conversely, the Padres took a different route with Tatis, opting to have him on their Opening Day roster in 2019, despite the risk of losing him after six years instead of seven.
Any concerns regarding Tatis’ potential exit evaporated once the Padres extended him with a 14-year contract in 2021. At that point, Guerrero, playing on a $605,400 salary that season—just above league minimum—had a breakout year, setting career highs with 48 home runs and an OPS+ 67% above league average. Had a deal resembling Tatis’ been offered, it’s likely he would have accepted. However, the Jays seemed to have recoiled at the idea.
Tatis’ contract was among the largest in MLB history when signed. While he was an athletic shortstop then, Guerrero’s performance in his arbitration years saw him earn a combined total of $70.8 million. If the Jays had matched the Tatis agreement, Guerrero would have made approximately $269.2 million over his 10 free-agent years—potentially hundreds of millions below his current ask.
After experiencing a downturn in performance in 2022, Guerrero opted for a $14.5 million salary for 2023 in arbitration instead of pursuing an extension. Following another season of decline, he went through arbitration again and the arbitrator sided with Guerrero’s request for $19.9 million over the Jays’ offer of $18.05 million—the highest salary ever awarded in this context.
This offseason, the Jays avoided another arbitration hearing with Guerrero as they sought a long-term agreement. They settled on $28.5 million, placing Guerrero among the highest-paid arbitration-eligible players, following Soto at $31 million and Shohei Ohtani at $30 million. Despite this, a long-term deal remains unattainable.
The inability to finalize a contract with Guerrero puts the Jays at a pivotal juncture, with Shapiro entering his final contract year and Atkins holding two remaining years on his deal. Both inherited Guerrero, who was originally signed by the Anthopoulos regime from the Dominican Republic for $3.9 million in July 2015. Shapiro assumed the presidency just three months later and subsequently hired Atkins after Anthopoulos declined an extension.
Utilizing mainly players acquired by Anthopoulos, the Jays made it to the 2016 American League Championship Series in Shapiro and Atkins’ inaugural season. However, they have not won a playoff game since then. With this offseason’s acquisitions of second baseman Andrés Giménez, outfielder Anthony Santander, pitcher Max Scherzer, and relievers Jeff Hoffman and Yimi García, there may be hope for a turnaround. Nevertheless, the impending losses of two foundational homegrown players, Guerrero and shortstop Bo Bichette—who is also entering his walk year—add to the urgency of the situation.
In the case of Guerrero, it certainly didn’t have to end this way.
(Top photo of Guerrero: Julian Avram / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
