The delicate cease-fire that halted 15 months of conflict in the Gaza Strip is increasingly at risk of collapse, with a deadline set for noon on Saturday, just 27 days after it was initiated.

President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have warned that if Hamas does not release all hostages currently held in Gaza by the specified time, intense fighting will resume in the region.

Presently, there are 31 hostages being held in the Palestinian territory, along with the remains of 36 others.

This ultimatum follows Hamas’s decision to delay the release of three hostages originally scheduled for Saturday, as they accuse Israel of breaching the cease-fire terms.

With both Israel and Hamas mobilizing their forces for renewed conflict and mediators striving to negotiate peace, the situation for the hostages and the civilians trapped in the crossfire remains uncertain.

Experts suggest that a return to war may be precisely what Hamas and its Iranian supporters desire.

This is particularly concerning as Hamas’s Health Ministry reports a staggering toll from the conflict, claiming over 48,000 casualties, though this statistic does not differentiate between militants and civilians.

Moreover, it appears that Netanyahu’s administration, along with his allies in Washington, increasingly doubt the viability of the cease-fire, according to many observers.

Hamas’s Advantage and Reconstruction Efforts

Since the cease-fire commenced on January 19, Hamas has demonstrated resilience by organizing large parades amid the hostage exchanges, asserting its capacity to rebuild its military capabilities despite Israeli claims of over 17,000 fighters killed.

Some intelligence reports suggest that the destruction and loss of life in Gaza have enabled Hamas to recruit and bolster its ranks.

This diminishes the group’s risk if the conflict resumes, as they seek to garner further concessions from Israel.

Joe Truzman, a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defending Democracy, noted that Hamas recognizes the leverage it possesses following the public outcry from last Saturday’s hostage exchange, where three visibly malnourished Israelis were paraded in Gaza City.

“Hamas is leveraging the public outcry from the disturbing images of malnourished hostages to increase pressure on the Israeli government for more concessions,” Truzman stated.

The group’s chief demand, which has been consistently rejected, is to remain in control of Gaza. The current cease-fire agreement does not specify governance in the enclave post-conflict, with both Israel and the U.S. insisting that Hamas should not hold power.

Iran’s Strategic Gains from the Conflict

Before the October 7 terrorist attack and the associated escalation in Gaza, the region was making strides toward normalizing relations between Israel and Arab nations, a move that would have marginalized Iran and its militant affiliates.

An agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia—Iran’s primary rival and a significant regional power—would have further isolated Tehran. However, the Saudis have stepped back from negotiations in response to the backlash over Israel’s actions in Gaza.

Richard Goldberg, a senior advisor at the FDD, suggested that this scenario aligns with Iran’s strategy in supporting Hamas, highlighting that renewed conflict would serve Tehran’s interests.

“Iran likely seeks to reignite warfare, escalating tensions in Arab-Israeli relations and complicating prospects for Saudi-Israeli normalization,” he told The Post.

“We must consider the possibility that this situation is driven by Iranian interests,” Goldberg added.

Netanyahu’s Objectives: Hostages and Hamas’s Demise

Netanyahu has reiterated his dual objectives for the conflict: ensuring the release of all hostages taken during the October 7 attack and completely dismantling Hamas to guarantee that Gaza never poses a threat to Israel again.

Israeli officials have expressed frustration that the current cease-fire arrangement leaves the future of Hamas undefined, with Israel dismissing any proposals that would allow the militant group to maintain control, despite the lack of an alternative solution.

If conflict resumes on Saturday, Israel would once again engage in efforts to eliminate Hamas and its military capabilities, fulfilling Netanyahu’s commitments to his far-right coalition, which has threatened to destabilize his government.

“From Netanyahu’s viewpoint, the cease-fire presented a dilemma: he could either opt for a prolonged cease-fire that might bring back the hostages or continue military operations, risking governmental instability,” observed Brian Carter, the Middle East Program Director at the Institute for the Study of War.

The effectiveness of this strategy remains unclear, as Hamas has demonstrated resilience and has rebuilt itself after the prolonged conflict, which resulted in the destruction of nearly 70% of Gaza’s infrastructure and more than 47,000 fatalities.

Aiming for Lasting Peace in the Region

Despite President Trump’s assertions that his administration would swiftly conclude the war upon his return to office, a prolonged conflict in Gaza might paradoxically advance his administration’s peace objectives in the region.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has expressed concern that Hamas is leveraging the cease-fire to rearm, echoing Netanyahu’s sentiments.

“Israel must not allow this to happen,” he stated during a NewsNation interview. “Hamas cannot be permitted to use the cease-fire to regain strength.”

The continued presence of Hamas complicates Trump’s proposal for a U.S. takeover of Gaza, as any evacuation efforts may meet with violent resistance.

Ultimately, Trump has left the decision to renew conflict in Israel’s hands, claiming America will support its ally wholeheartedly.

An Upcoming Complicated Conflict

As both sides gear up for war, they are likely to confront renewed challenges stemming from the cease-fire agreement.

The temporary halt in hostilities has permitted thousands of the 2.3 million displaced Palestinians to return to their devastated neighborhoods, including areas in northern Gaza where Hamas has reestablished its military presence.

With many civilians reluctant to evacuate once more after 15 months of upheaval, a renewed outbreak of violence would jeopardize their safety and provoke further international outcry regarding the humanitarian toll.

A resurgence of conflict might also halt the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza, exacerbating the already dire humanitarian crisis.

Palestinians have limited options to flee, as their borders with Israel and Egypt remain closed since the beginning of the war.

The potential resumption of hostilities has also plunged the families of hostages deeper into despair, as their loved ones may remain captive throughout the renewed conflict or until the next negotiation for a cease-fire.

Currently, 31 hostages are alive in Gaza, alongside the remains of 36 others who perished during the October 7 attack or while in captivity.

Families have emphasized the urgency of the situation following the release of the latest batch of hostages, urging both the U.S. and Israel to prevent Hamas from asserting control.