Welcome to our 4 Nations Face-Off predictions, where you’ll discover each nation’s rosters, estimated values, winning probabilities for every match, and their chances of clinching the tournament title. All projections are rounded to the nearest whole number for simplicity. For more details about our predictive model, please scroll to the bottom of the page. Remember, the projections will be refreshed following each game.

Last updated: February 11, 2025, 9:45 a.m. EST

Team Rosters

Projections Methodology

Our analysis begins at the individual player level, where we generate a projected Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating. This linear weight model evaluates each player’s productivity and playmaking capabilities using a variety of statistical and on-ice performance metrics. Projections are based on players’ performances over the previous three seasons (five for goalies), with more recent seasons given greater weight while also being regressed to the mean. Each player’s metrics are then adjusted for contextual play, taking into account their usual teammates and opponents. Player performance is measured per minute across various game situations (five-on-five, power plays, and penalty kills) and is integrated into projected ice time based on anticipated roles in the tournament. By creating individual Offensive and Defensive Ratings for roster players, we can derive overall team ratings.

These team ratings provide insights into the anticipated goals each team will score and allow in a match against an average opponent at a neutral location. We also assess each team’s chances of winning a specific game by factoring in their opponent’s strength and home ice considerations for matches played by Canada in Montreal and the USA in Boston. Further refinements to team ratings occur throughout the tournament based on how actual results align with our forecasts. Using the Monte Carlo method, we simulate the remaining tournament schedule 50,000 times, taking into account each team’s current record and future matchups.

(Photo: Mark Blinch / NHLI via Getty Images)