NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) rocket, accompanied by the Orion spacecraft atop the mobile launcher, makes its way from the Vehicle Assembly Building to Launch Pad 39B on November 3, 2022, at Kennedy Space Center, Cape Canaveral, Florida, in preparation for an upcoming mission.

Joel Kowsky/NASA

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Joel Kowsky/NASA

A lunar rock specimen gathered during the Apollo 17 mission in 1972—marking the conclusion of the last American moon landing—previously held a prominent position on a shelf in President Joe Biden’s Oval Office. This piece was a special gift from NASA, intended to represent the nation’s commitment to reestablishing human presence on the lunar surface as part of a broader initiative initiated by his predecessor.

Notably, as former President Trump embarked on a second term, this invaluable moon rock was returned to NASA. In his recent inaugural address, Trump refrained from mentioning lunar aspirations and instead echoed the ambitions of Elon Musk, who heads the newly established Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), proclaiming a vision that Americans would “pursue our manifest destiny into the stars” and “plant the Stars and Stripes on Mars.”

Moreover, Musk, the founder of SpaceX, has openly criticized NASA’s Artemis initiative, which Trump launched in 2017 with the goal of returning astronauts to the moon for sustained exploration.

Musk has notably shared his reservations regarding the Artemis program, particularly criticizing the costly Space Launch System (SLS). He referred to the lunar venture as a “distraction” in a recent post on X, asserting, “We’re heading straight to Mars.” Jared Isaacman, Trump’s selection for NASA administrator, also described the SLS as “outrageously expensive.”

Shifts in Lunar Focus Under Trump Administration

The Artemis program has faced numerous obstacles over time. Recently, Boeing, the primary contractor for the SLS, warned its employees of possible layoffs, citing “revisions to the Artemis program and adjusted cost expectations.”

Todd Harrison, a space policy analyst affiliated with the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute, stated: “The Artemis initiative, as initially presented during Trump’s first term, is effectively defunct.”

Harrison speculates that Musk’s influence is central to this departure from lunar ambitions, suggesting, “It seems like this is completely Elon Musk whispering in the president’s ear, guiding the narrative.”

Continued Challenges for Artemis Program

NASA has committed around $40 billion to the Artemis initiative, which aimed to send astronauts around the moon by April 2026, followed by a landing in 2027. However, delays linked to the development of the SLS and issues with the Orion crew capsule’s heat shield have repeatedly postponed these timelines.

Despite these setbacks, Thomas Culligan, a former aerospace lobbyist, emphasizes, “We have never been closer to returning American astronauts to the moon since 1972.” He adds, “Many people are unaware of how far advanced we are in our mission planning.”

Geopolitical Implications of Lunar Aspirations

While the U.S. grapples with its plans, China is moving full steam ahead with its goal to send astronauts to the moon by 2030, alongside other countries like Japan and India, who are actively pursuing lunar exploration.

Allen Cutler, president of the Coalition for Deep Space Exploration, warns that if the U.S. steps back from Artemis, it risks relinquishing its position in determining international norms for lunar exploration to China, eroding U.S. influence in space.

“Failing to establish a leadership role on the moon would signify a loss—not just in space endeavors, but in global diplomacy and economic competitiveness,” Cutler notes.

Forczyk and others argue that the race to the moon is a marathon rather than a sprint. She emphasizes, “Establishing a lasting presence on the moon is crucial—it’s vital to sustain our engagement beyond the achievements of the Apollo era.”

Concerns also arise over abandoning commitments to the Lunar Gateway initiative, a collaborative effort involving the U.S., Canada, Japan, the European Space Agency, and the UAE to create the first space station orbiting the moon.

Current Status of the Artemis Program

While the SLS successfully launched an uncrewed Orion capsule around the moon in 2022, the Artemis program is still without a lunar lander, a role SpaceX’s Starship is expected to fulfill. Since receiving the contract in 2021, the lunar Starship’s development has faced delays, presenting several significant technical hurdles, including a complex orbital refueling procedure that has yet to be validated.

Tim Farrar, a space consultancy president, remarks, “While Elon Musk tends to follow through on his commitments, he often doesn’t adhere to deadlines. The pressing question is: How long will we wait for these developments?”

NASA is exploring other options as well; in 2023, it awarded a contract to Blue Origin, founded by Jeff Bezos, to develop a lunar lander as a potential alternative to SpaceX’s Starship. Although Blue Origin aims to test its vehicle on the moon soon, the company declined to share updates with NPR about its progress.

According to Cutler, 95% of the necessary hardware for Artemis II has been completed, with human astronaut training underway. He and other experts doubt the likelihood of an abrupt cessation of the program, particularly given the advancement of mission planning.

“It’s challenging to envision a president, who initiated the Artemis program in his last term, not wishing to see the first American astronauts orbit the moon since the Apollo missions,” Culligan asserts.

The SLS enjoys support from both major political parties in Congress. Alabama Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville, whose state houses NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center and an estimated 14,000 jobs linked to the SLS, recently stated in an interview that the SLS program is “doing fine.”

However, various Congress members have raised concerns regarding Musk’s involvement in the DOGE initiative, suggesting conflicts of interest when it comes to NASA oversight. New York Democratic Representative Grace Meng recently sent a letter urging NASA administrators to revoke Musk’s access to NASA headquarters.

Musk’s Mars Aspirations: Risks Ahead

Tim Farrar, president of TMF Associates, deems Musk’s vision ambitious, expressing that Mars exploration poses significant risks. One crucial argument for moon missions is that they serve as preliminary training for Mars expeditions, which are significantly farther away.

Historically, during the Apollo missions, NASA was able to limit astronauts’ exposure to radiation due to the short mission timelines. Mars missions, on the other hand, would involve lengthy journeys—around seven to nine months one way—raising significant concerns about health and safety.

Musk has publicly stated that early missions to Mars will be fraught with peril, suggesting that astronauts should prepare for the possibility of not returning. SpaceX’s development practices often involve rigorous testing that results in failures, a process Musk refers to as “iterative design.”

Farrar points out that, while Musk may embrace risk, the general public’s response to potential fatal consequences in space missions remains uncertain. “How will the public react if things go wrong?” he questions. “It’s not easy to overlook the ramifications of fatalities in space travel.”