Today, John Mozeliak, the president of baseball operations for the Cardinals, addressed the media, including Derrick Goold from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat. He indicated that trade discussions involving Nolan Arenado are unlikely to proceed, suggesting, “The mindset right now is that he’s likely going to be part of our team at this point. I think there’s a better chance than not that he will be our Opening Day third baseman.”

This stance is not unexpected given recent developments. About a month ago, there were reports that the Cardinals’ attempts to trade Arenado had hit a standstill, with the Boston Red Sox being the most viable option, though challenges persisted.

The Red Sox have committed to bolstering their infield, as they recently finalized a contract with Alex Bregman, who is slated to play second base. While this shift won’t prevent Arenado from covering third base at Fenway, the overall dynamics with Rafael Devers already at that position remain contentious. Proposed scenarios included moving Devers to first base and trading Triston Casas or Masataka Yoshida. However, these options appeared difficult to execute.

While such scenarios remain theoretically possible, the broader team context complicates matters. Bregman’s deal is reportedly valued at $120 million over three years, averaging $40 million per season. In comparison, the net present value of Devers’ contract is closer to $31.9 million annually, which still represents a significant portion of the payroll. Meanwhile, Arenado has about three years and $60 million remaining on his contract, factoring in deferrals and some financial support from the Rockies.

The recent substantial investment by Boston in their infield may create roster complications, particularly following Bregman’s signing. According to Chris Cotillo of MassLive, the chances of the Red Sox pursuing Arenado now sit “at about 0.0%.”

For the Cardinals, this scenario is particularly surprising. By late September of last year, reports surfaced suggesting a strategic shift was upcoming, aimed at a reset in 2025. This plan would emphasize long-term player development over immediate results, with Mozeliak in his current role while Chaim Bloom would overhaul the player development framework, eventually taking over Mozeliak’s position.

At that juncture, speculation arose regarding players being made available, particularly those who were expensive or nearing free agency. Candidates for potential trades included Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Steven Matz, Erick Fedde, and Ryan Helsley.

However, as we look back months later, all these players remain on the roster. Contreras and Gray indicated reluctance to waive their no-trade clauses, while the organization showed little desire to trade Fedde or Helsley.

Unlike Gray or Contreras, Arenado was reportedly more open to considering a trade. Reports suggest he had a list of six teams he would be willing to join, although this notion was met with skepticism regarding its rigidity. Recently, he rejected a deal with the Astros, expressing hesitation over their direction after the Kyle Tucker trade to the Cubs. Rather than risk uncertainty, the Astros opted to sign Christian Walker, which made an Arenado trade far less feasible, locking Isaac Paredes into third base.

As time progresses, Arenado may need to broaden his acceptable options for a trade to materialize. Mozeliak mentioned, “I think it would have to open up a little bit more,” indicating they may have exhausted other possibilities.

Additionally, Goold reported that Mozeliak reached out to five teams that might align with Arenado’s preferences, including the Yankees, Red Sox, Padres, and Dodgers, with the Astros likely being the fifth team. The Yankees, however, wanted the Cardinals to cover a greater portion of Arenado’s contract than they were prepared to handle. The Dodgers have Max Muncy at third and have not shown interest in any changes. The Padres are also facing significant financial constraints, and the Red Sox appear unlikely now after acquiring Bregman.

There remains the possibility that Arenado may reconsider and expand his options based on the evolving situation. With winning being his primary goal, it seems challenging for him to find success in St. Louis this year amidst reset strategies. Reports indicate that the Royals made inquiries about Arenado, but the Cardinals were reluctant to engage, believing he wouldn’t want to go there. Teams like the Tigers and Blue Jays, which pursued Bregman, may pivot to Arenado, yet his willingness to join these clubs is uncertain.

If Arenado does remain with the Cardinals, it will pose some dilemmas regarding playing time. The intention behind trading Arenado was to free up funds and provide more opportunities for players with uncertain futures. Nolan Gorman was expected to get regular chances at third base after a difficult 2024 season, but his role could shift back to second if Arenado stays, potentially blocking Thomas Saggese or pushing Brendan Donovan into a utility role, affecting their time in the outfield alongside players like Jordan Walker and Victor Scott II.

This offseason has been full of surprises for the Cardinals, leading to fewer changes than anticipated. They have yet to secure a major league free agent and have only made one trade, acquiring depth infielder Michael Helman from the Twins.