What Did Trump Say?

During a press briefing in the Oval Office on Monday night, Trump stated, “If they’re not freed, all hell is going to break loose.” He went on to say regarding the ceasefire: “Cancel it, and all bets are off.”

Trump emphasized that the decision ultimately rests with Israel, remarking, “I’m speaking for myself. Israel can override it.” When questioned about a potential US response if the hostages remain captive, Trump commented, “Hamas will discover what I mean.”

He also indicated that he might restrict aid to Jordan and Egypt if these nations do not accept refugees from Gaza.

Although Trump appeared to reference the remaining hostages in Gaza, his statement lacked clarity. An additional 16 individuals, including eight deceased, are expected to be released as part of the initial six-week phase of the ceasefire. In total, 76 captives remain in the region.

The release of additional living hostages is intended for the second phase, which is anticipated to commence in early March, though its duration remains uncertain.

Why Did Hamas Announce a Delay in the Hostage Release?

Hamas spokesman Abu Obeida cited alleged breaches of the ceasefire by Israel, claiming delays in the return of Palestinians to northern Gaza, obstruction of aid deliveries, and attacks on civilians. He stated that no further hostage releases would occur until Israel “complies and compensates for the past weeks.” Israel has denied these accusations.

While Hamas did not directly address Trump’s proposal regarding Gaza, it appears the US’s shift in stance is pivotal to their decision-making. Hamas has lost confidence in Washington’s assurances regarding the ceasefire and doubts Israel’s commitment to implementing the plan, according to Reuters.

The group noted that they “intentionally made this announcement five days before the scheduled prisoner handover to provide mediators ample opportunity to pressure [Israel] into fulfilling its obligations.”

In light of Trump’s recent remarks, a senior Hamas official, Sami Abu Zuhri, responded: “Threatening language serves no purpose and only complicates the situation.”

How Has Israel Responded?

On Tuesday morning, Israel’s security cabinet convened to review negotiations concerning the second phase of the agreement. The military has reportedly canceled all leaves for soldiers in the Gaza division, signaling preparations for a potential resumption of conflict.

In Tel Aviv, demonstrators blocked roads on Monday night, calling for the return of all hostages. Some family members accused the government of undermining the agreement. Protests continued on Tuesday, with activists obstructing the main highway between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.

Concerns have arisen regarding Israel’s commitment to transitioning from phase one to phase two since the initial agreement. Far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich has indicated he would resign from Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition if military action resumes following the first phase, placing the prime minister in a challenging position between maintaining his government and pursuing the deal.

What Is Expected Under the Ceasefire Agreement?

The forthcoming exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners was scheduled for this Saturday, marking the sixth exchange in the initial six-week stage of the ceasefire agreement.

These hostage-detainee exchanges are set to occur weekly until March 2. In the second phase, all remaining living hostages are anticipated to be released, with Israel fully withdrawing from Gaza, effectively concluding the conflict.

Discussions about the second phase were expected to begin last week; however, Netanyahu has limited the Israeli team’s authorization to address only technical matters surrounding the first phase. Proposals to extend the first phase of the agreement are also on the table.

The final phase is expected to include the exchange of deceased hostages and Hamas members, alongside the initiation of a reconstruction plan for Gaza, although future governance remains uncertain.