BERLIN (AP) — German citizens are set to vote on Sunday to select a new parliament, which will play a crucial role in shaping the nation’s governance for the next four years.

As the most populous country in the 27-nation European Union and a key member of NATO, Germany stands as Europe’s largest economy. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Germany has also become its second-largest arms supplier, trailing only behind the United States. The forthcoming government will be vital in determining Europe’s strategy towards a more assertive U.S. administration.

Here’s what to anticipate for Sunday and beyond.

What to Expect on Election Day

Polling stations will open at 8 a.m. and close at 6 p.m. Voters in Germany also have the option to cast their ballots by mail, but these must arrive by the closure of polling stations to be counted.

Immediately after voting concludes, exit polls will be revealed and the counting of votes will commence, likely providing a quick overview of the results. A final official outcome is expected early the following Monday.

The Candidates

Currently, there are four main candidates vying for the position of Germany’s leader: incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats, Friedrich Merz from the Christian Democratic Union, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck of the Greens, and Alice Weidel of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Pre-election surveys indicate that Merz’s Union bloc is leading with around 30% support, followed closely by AfD at approximately 20%. Scholz’s Social Democrats and Habeck’s Greens trail behind.

While Merz is considered the frontrunner to succeed Scholz as chancellor, the formation of governing coalitions post-election remains uncertain. The ease of establishing a government may hinge on the number of parties represented in the incoming parliament, with several parties polling around the critical 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation.

All mainstream parties have declared they will not collaborate with the AfD.

What’s at Stake?

Approximately 59.2 million people in Germany’s 84 million population are eligible to vote for the new Bundestag, the country’s lower house of parliament. This 630-member body will select the next chancellor, equivalent to a prime minister.

There are 29 parties on the ballot, but it’s anticipated that only five to eight will secure enough votes to earn parliamentary seats. Generally, parties must achieve at least 5% of the vote to gain representation.

Post-Election Process

Germany’s electoral mechanism seldom grants any single party an outright majority, and current polling indicates that no party is likely to reach this threshold. The country lacks a tradition of minority governments, so it’s expected that two or more parties will band together to form a coalition.

There is no designated arbitrator in the government formation process, nor is there a formal timeline. Parties will engage in exploratory discussions to identify mutual interests before moving on to formal coalition negotiations.

These negotiations typically yield a comprehensive coalition agreement detailing the new government’s agenda, which will need ratification from party conventions. Some parties may also opt for a vote among their entire membership.

Once this process concludes, the Bundestag will proceed to elect the new chancellor.

The Importance of This Election

A robust German government will be critical for addressing the European response to a new U.S. administration and the ongoing upheaval in Ukraine and beyond.

Germany and France have traditionally driven the EU forward, yet both nations are currently experiencing significant domestic political challenges.

This election has been rescheduled to take place seven months earlier than initially projected due to the collapse of Scholz’s three-party coalition in November, sparked by disagreements over revitalizing the economy, which has faced contraction for the last two years. A significant priority for the incoming government will be to formulate a coherent strategy to address this economic downturn.

Additionally, tackling the issue of irregular migration will also be a pressing challenge discussed during the campaign.

If victorious, Merz has indicated his aspiration to establish a new government by mid-April. In the meantime, Scholz’s outgoing administration will persist in a caretaker role until the Bundestag appoints a new chancellor.