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Astronomers have identified a newly found asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, which currently has an average impact probability of 2% for the year 2032. Although this is a relatively low likelihood, scientists are monitoring this celestial body closely, utilizing advanced observational technology—potentially the strongest telescope ever set in motion.

Although not much information is available about 2024 YR4, it is estimated to measure between 131 and 295 feet (40 to 90 meters) in diameter, comparable to that of a sizeable structure, according to Dr. Paul Chodas, director of the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.

This size is insignificant compared to the “planetary killer” asteroid that struck Earth 66 million years ago, which contributed to the extinction of the dinosaurs. That asteroid was estimated to be around 6.2 miles (10 kilometers) in diameter and marked the last significant impact event recorded. Planetary killer asteroids are defined as those measuring 1 kilometer or more in width, posing severe risks to global life.

However, smaller asteroids can still inflict considerable damage to localized regions if they are on a trajectory toward Earth, which heightens the urgency for astronomers to gather comprehensive data about 2024 YR4 as quickly as possible.

By accurately determining the asteroid’s path, researchers hope to nullify any chances of a direct collision. However, they face a time constraint, as the asteroid will become less visible by April. The renowned James Webb Space Telescope is set to focus on 2024 YR4 to ascertain its dimensions and orbit parameters shortly.

The ATLAS observatory, located in Rio Hurtado, Chile, originally detected 2024 YR4 on December 27. This telescope is part of NASA’s asteroid detection initiatives, actively scanning the sky for near-Earth objects, noted Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at JPL and CNEOS, in a correspondence.

The dimensions of the asteroid have not changed significantly since its discovery despite numerous observations from various telescopes. Observations are primarily based on the amount of sunlight the asteroid reflects, which assists in estimating its size.

Nevertheless, the Webb telescope, scheduled to observe 2024 YR4 in early March, works with infrared light. This capability allows it to measure the heat emitted by the asteroid, yielding a much more precise size estimation, as revealed in a study published in Nature last December.

Since early January, various observatories, including the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico and the Very Large Telescope in Chile, have tracked the asteroid, which is currently positioned over 30 million miles (48 million kilometers) away from Earth and is gradually moving further from our planet, according to Farnocchia. The asteroid will be observable until early April, after which it will continue to orbit the sun.

Hawaii’s observatories are also monitoring the asteroid closely. The Pan-STARRS telescope, based on the Haleakalā volcano in Maui, is the leading facility for discovering near-Earth objects globally. It is actively contributing to tracking the movements of 2024 YR4.

“The telescopes in Hawaiʻi are crucial for planetary defense,” remarked Doug Simons, director at the University of Hawaii’s Institute for Astronomy. “Our excellent location and cutting-edge technology allow us to detect, monitor, and analyze asteroids with remarkable precision. This gives researchers valuable time to assess possible dangers and develop appropriate responses.”

The Webb telescope will be able to continue observing 2024 YR4, even when it moves beyond the capability of ground-based telescopes. It will gather vital data on the asteroid’s position, as reported by the European Space Agency. Following the initial observations in March, a second campaign is scheduled for May to provide final measurements of the asteroid’s orbit and the changes in its temperature as it moves further from the sun.

Should 2024 YR4 become unobservable before scientists can establish its impact risk, it will remain on the watch list until it reappears in June 2028. Current calculations indicate that it passes close to Earth every four years, but the asteroid is not expected to be a threat in 2028, according to the University of Hawaii.

Accurately gauging the size of the asteroid is vital for astronomers to assess potential risks if 2024 YR4 is found to be on a collision path with Earth.

“If the asteroid is at the larger end of its estimated size,” Dr. Chodas explained, “the consequences could cause damage extending up to 50 kilometers (31 miles) from the impact point. However, this would only be in the unlikely event of an actual impact, given the asteroid’s high entry velocity of approximately 17 kilometers per second (38,028 miles per hour).”

Asteroids of similar size typically collide with Earth every few millennia, potentially causing significant damage to localized areas, as reported by the European Space Agency.

For instance, in 1908, a 30-meter-wide (98-foot) asteroid hit the Podkamennaya Tunguska River in a remote area of Siberia, according to the Planetary Society. The explosion flattened trees over 830 square miles (2,150 square kilometers).

Moreover, in 2013, a 20-meter-wide (66-foot) asteroid entered Earth’s atmosphere over Chelyabinsk, Russia, detonating in the air and releasing an explosion equivalent to 20 to 30 times that of the first atomic bomb, creating a brilliance that outshone the sun, damaging over 7,000 buildings and injuring more than 1,000 individuals.

If 2024 YR4 turns out to be larger than anticipated, the repercussions could be even more severe, according to the European Space Agency.

“Should the asteroid’s diameter be confirmed to be within the (50-meter) range, particularly if it’s deemed a rocky asteroid, the resulting impact could resemble the devastation witnessed during the Tunguska event in 1908, affecting an area of (2,000 square kilometers) and impacting 20 million trees,” as detailed in a document from the agency. “This would be akin to a circle with a diameter of 25 kilometers. If the asteroid is even larger, the impact zone could extend for several tens of kilometers.”

Approximately 3,000 new near-Earth objects are identified annually; however, spotting asteroids within the size range of 2024 YR4 can be particularly challenging because they tend to be dark and smaller, making them less visible to telescopes. Scientists estimate there are around 600,000 rocky bodies comparable in size to the asteroid, but only about 2%, or approximately 12,000, have been detected, according to the European Space Agency.

“While small asteroids frequently visit Earth, disrupting as fiery meteorites, luckily those that are tiny cause minimal surface damage,” noted Larry Denneau, an astronomer with the University of Hawaii’s Institute for Astronomy and co-lead investigator at the ATLAS telescope. “Larger asteroids pose a greater risk of damage, but they strike with much lower frequency. Many of these larger bodies remain undiscovered, which is why we continuously survey the entire sky to proactively identify any potential threats.”