Title: Russian Offensive Campaign Update – February 18, 2025

Authors: Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Davit Gasparyan, Olivia Gibson, Frederick W. Kagan, and Nate Trotter

Date: February 18, 2025, 9:00 PM ET

Explore ISW’s interactive map documenting the Russian invasion of Ukraine by clicking here. The map is refreshed daily to provide the latest information alongside our static maps featured in this report.

To view ISW’s interactive map detailing Ukraine’s operations in Kursk Oblast, click here.

For a detailed 3D terrain control map of Ukraine, which requires a computer for optimal use, click here.

Access our archive of interactive time-lapse maps documenting the Russian invasion by clicking here. This archive complements our daily static control-of-terrain maps, showcasing the evolving frontline in real-time, with updates provided on a monthly basis.

Important Note: The data used for this analysis was collected up until 1:30 PM ET on February 18. Subsequent assessments will be covered in the February 19 Russian Offensive Campaign Report.

Russian and American representatives held discussions in Saudi Arabia regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine on February 18. However, according to Western intelligence assessments and US officials, Russia shows no sign of making significant concessions. As reported by NBC, intelligence from the US and closely allied nations indicates that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains intent on maintaining full control over Ukraine, with his aims described as "maximalist." Congressional officials have expressed that there is "zero" intelligence suggesting Putin is currently interested in negotiating a genuine peace agreement. The data indicates that there are no plans for Russian troop withdrawals or reductions in military personnel and equipment from the western regions of Russia. Analysts speculate that Putin might agree to a ceasefire or peace discussion solely to allow time for the Russian military to recuperate and reorganize. Some Western officials suspect he may engage in negotiations to gauge potential concessions and explore ways to reintegrate Russia into the international community.

Western intelligence suggests that Putin has not revised his strategy for victory in Ukraine, believing that Russia’s military prowess allows it to outlast both the West and Ukraine on the battlefield. Consequently, Putin assumes he can simply "wait out" Ukraine and its European allies to ultimately claim control of the entire Ukrainian territory. A Western intelligence official pointed out that Putin believes he is achieving success and feels no urgency to cease hostilities despite losses on the battlefield, having claimed in June 2024 that Russian military objectives include exhausting Ukrainian forces from territories claimed to be under Russian control. Furthermore, Putin has asserted that another reserve call-up like that of September 2022 would be unnecessary, as swift military success isn’t essential to Russia’s strategy in Ukraine.

Recent Russian statements reaffirm that Putin has little interest in pursuing negotiations in good faith and remains focused on dismantling the Ukrainian state. The Kremlin has made no indications that it would consider substantive compromises. Officials have consistently denied Ukraine’s sovereignty within its recognized 1991 borders, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claiming on February 16 that Russia had adjusted its negotiation stance based on Ukraine’s purported lack of sovereignty. The Kremlin has also propagated false narratives characterizing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as “illegitimate,” undermining his authority to negotiate with Russia or obligating Russia to honor any future agreements he may sign. Additionally, Russian officials have demanded further territorial concessions from Ukraine while outright rejecting any claims to yield territory of their own.

Amidst these discussions, Russian officials attempted to assert an equal standing with the United States during the February 18 talks, emphasizing US-Russian bilateral relations over the conflict in Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) issued a standard communication about the meeting, during which Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov engaged with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Michael Waltz, and Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff. Officials from Russia broadly stated that the talks were productive and characterized the discussions as a beginning of sustained dialogue on various issues, including military cooperation and reinvigorating communication as major powers. However, the MFA’s statement only briefly addressed Ukraine, indicating a perfunctory dialogue on the situation amid high-level discussions.

Despite the discussions, Russian officials at the meeting underscored the Kremlin’s reluctance to negotiate genuine terms regarding the conflict and its commitment to achieving its maximalist aims in Ukraine. Lavrov remarked that officials in Romania and other unspecified EU nations are reportedly discussing claims on Ukrainian territory, a statement that fits within a wider Kremlin narrative asserting historical claims over Ukrainian land.

Additionally, Russian representatives in Saudi Arabia appear to be shaping a narrative that seeks to compel the United States into accepting economic incentives in exchange for minimal concessions concerning Ukraine. Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, in remarks, emphasized the mutual benefits of US-Russian economic cooperation, claiming that American companies could potentially recover losses incurred by exiting the Russian market. Furthermore, Dmitriev indicated that he would present economic proposals conducive to revitalizing discussions between both nations.

While Dmitriev portrayed these economic incentives as advantageous for the US, the reality reflects that Russia is in urgent need of economic relief to mitigate impending crises in the near future. He suggested that past US economic actions have waned confidence in the dollar but positioned Russia as more self-sufficient in contrast, all while the Kremlin faces a series of economic challenges that are likely to deteriorate significantly over the next year.

Amidst these complexities, US officials have also been actively engaging with European leaders regarding ongoing support for Ukraine. On February 18, US Special Presidential Envoy Keith Kellogg met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa, where both leaders stressed the importance of a united front to ensure lasting peace and security for Ukraine.

Key Highlights:

• Russian and American representatives met in Saudi Arabia to discuss the Ukrainian conflict, but no significant concessions appear forthcoming from Russia.
• Kremlins’ rhetoric indicates a persistent objective to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty without any genuine negotiations.
• Despite efforts to create a facade of negotiation, the Kremlin signals steadfastness in pursuing its maximalist goals in Ukraine.
• Zelensky continues to seek compromises aimed at achieving a resolution to the war.
• Russia’s leadership is attempting to incentivize the US towards accepting economic measures that lack substantial concessions regarding Ukraine.
• Ongoing discussions among US officials and European leaders emphasize the necessity for united support for Ukraine.

In regards to the evolving military situation, Russian forces have achieved notable advances in certain areas, including near Borova, Toretsk, and Velyka Novosilka, although not all reported advancements have been confirmed. Reports indicate that personnel challenges are leading to the deployment of wounded and medically unfit soldiers to the front lines.

For detailed maps and updates on the ongoing military operations across Ukraine, please refer to the provided URLs.

Note: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) utilizes openly accessible information and continuously analyzes both Russian and Ukrainian social media, news reports, and geospatial data to compile these assessments.

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