Currently, the United States maintains a military presence of 80,000 troops in Europe, marking an increase of over 25% since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago. Together, the European components of NATO and the United Kingdom allocate approximately $460 billion annually for defense, which constitutes about half of the budget allocated to the Pentagon.

During a recent visit to the NATO alliance, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth acknowledged that American forces are stationed in Europe for the time being, but added that “what unfolds in five, ten, or fifteen years is part of a larger dialogue.” Read more here.

Many Europeans easily grasped the underlying message. A former NATO official, who requested anonymity to speak freely, remarked, “It’s apparent what position the United States holds. It’s not firmly in Europe. Europe is coming to terms with the realization that ‘Oh my, we may have to rely on ourselves.’”

The Munich conference was heavily characterized by discussions surrounding these issues, with conversations taking place in various settings from the bustling bar on the first floor to the quieter mezzanine coffee shop. Diplomats, national leaders, and security officials engaged in intense dialogues trying to decipher the convoluted signals emerging from the Trump administration.

The urgency of these discussions prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to convene an emergency leaders’ meeting in Paris on Monday, reflecting his ambition to provide guidance in a continent that is in desperate need of direction.

As NATO prepares for its annual summit in The Hague this summer, the alliance is proactively reaching out to its member nations to enhance an ambitious new rapid response force. This initiative could deploy 100,000 troops in response to a Russian assault within ten days and potentially ramp up to 500,000 within six months — a capability far surpassing what the British, French, or German forces can achieve individually.