Abdelrahman
The concept proposed by former US President Donald Trump regarding the so-called “Gaza Riviera” has garnered considerable attention due to its intriguing nature.
According to various media sources, Trump’s idea reportedly draws from a 49-page document prepared by Joseph Pelzman, an economics professor based in Washington, last summer. This plan for Gaza proposes initiatives such as clean energy solutions, the establishment of a light rail system, the construction of airports and ports, digital governance, and beachfront hotels.
Reconstruction efforts in Gaza are undeniably urgent. Following over a year of extensive Israeli bombardment in retaliation for the October 7, 2023, attacks orchestrated by Hamas, a significant portion of the territory lies in devastation. Currently, a tenuous ceasefire holds.
However, for Trump’s ambitious plan to materialize, Pelzman emphasized during an August podcast that Gaza would need to be “entirely vacated.” He proposed that the US could persuade Egypt to accommodate refugees from Gaza, given the country’s financial obligations to the US.
Despite its intriguing proposal, significant challenges exist. Key concerns center around the financing of the extensive plan as well as persuading approximately 2 million Palestinians to leave their homes permanently—a scenario that many could argue amounts to ethnic cleansing.
Most Middle Eastern nations have expressed strong disapproval of the proposal. Countries like Egypt and Jordan, which Trump suggested could host millions of displaced Palestinians, have also voiced their opposition.
Following a politically sensitive visit to Washington earlier this week, King Abdullah II of Jordan made a statement reiterating his country’s firm stance against the displacement of Palestinians in both Gaza and the West Bank.
Egypt’s Foreign Ministry announced its commitment to a plan that prioritizes keeping the Palestinian people within their homeland.
Trump has contended that both Egypt and Jordan, both recipients of extensive US foreign aid and military support, would have no alternative.
Do Arab Nations Hold Influence Over the US?
What, if anything, can these nations do to counter the contentious “Gaza Riviera” initiative?
Jordan is one of the US’ staunch regional allies, having signed a defense cooperation agreement in 2021 that allows for the unimpeded movement of American forces, vehicles, and aircraft within its borders.
Experts contend that forcibly relocating Palestinian refugees into Jordan poses a severe “existential threat” to the government led by the monarchy. If the Jordanian regime were to falter, such a security partnership would also be put at risk.
Additionally, Jordan fears that if 2 million Gazans are compelled to settle in Egypt, the next wave of forced migration could target the estimated 3 million Palestinians living in the occupied West Bank, which borders Jordan.
Egypt has asserted that should Israel attempt to resettle Palestinians in the Sinai Peninsula, it would terminate its peace treaty with Israel.
Reports have also surfaced regarding the mobilization of Egyptian military forces in Sinai, though it’s uncertain whether this is directly in response to Trump’s proposals. Egyptian troops are already deployed in the region due to extremist activities.
President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi of Egypt has also postponed a previously scheduled visit to Washington.
Additionally, the possibility of Arab nations normalizing relations with Israel appears increasingly unlikely, even though the Trump administration aimed for improved Saudi-Israeli ties. Recently, Saudi leaders have maintained that they will not normalize relations without a definitive framework for Palestinian statehood.
Arab leaders might also leverage other forms of influence, such as intelligence collaborations with the US, American access to the Suez Canal, and Gulf state financial support for Trump’s regional investments, in addition to the close relationship between Saudi Arabia and Jared Kushner’s investment firm.
‘None of the Arab nations desire conflict with Trump’
However, experts indicate that it is improbable that Arab nations will utilize this leverage to thwart Trump’s Gaza initiative.
Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, emphasized that “the real leverage is fundamentally tied to reality.” He noted that the existing circumstances will likely prevent this from happening.
In his analysis, Katulis pointed to significant logistical challenges, particularly the continued presence of Hamas in Gaza. “Unless Trump envisions a scenario reminiscent of Mogadishu on the Mediterranean—like the situation with US troops trapped in Somalia in 1992—this plan is unlikely to come to fruition,” he remarked.
Moreover, Arab nations possess a unifying force against the proposal while advocating for a two-state resolution, according to Katulis.
Ahmed Aboudouh, a foreign affairs expert at Chatham House, stated, “None of the Arab countries are looking to confront Trump, especially at the beginning of his presidency.” Arab leaders are currently attempting to forge a unified front and engage US decision-makers in the State Department, Pentagon, and Congress to put pressure on the president.
They intend to illustrate that this situation is larger than just Egypt and Jordan, while also seeking support from European nations.
Several Arab nations have indicated their intention to propose an independent reconstruction plan for Gaza. An emergency Arab League meeting, scheduled for February 27 in Cairo, is likely to yield a draft proposal.
Media reports suggest that this “new” Arab initiative will likely draw from prior proposals, including one put forward by the Palestinian Authority, which oversees the occupied West Bank.
This plan might incorporate a technocratic administration for Gaza, security forces trained by Arab nations, and avoid the dislocation of residents. Temporarily displaced Palestinians would be accommodated in agricultural zones and other locations in Gaza until reconstruction is completed. The estimated financial requirement is over $30 billion (€28.6 billion), with Egypt expected to organize a donor conference.
The Arab League could also consider “interim measures to support Jordan and Egypt,” should the US suspend its assistance to these nations, as suggested by Marwan Muasher, a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace vice president.
Trump’s Statements Energize Israeli Right-Wing
Despite the evolving conversation surrounding the proposal, major uncertainties remain.
Katulis questioned, “Will Arab states really back up their words with actions?” He noted that much hinges on the type of Israeli administration in power and the decisions it makes.
“If we are merely considering Trump, we can confidently assert that this [‘Gaza Riviera’ initiative] is unlikely to come to fruition,” Aboudouh remarked. “However, if we look at the Israeli far right, the landscape is different—they are rallying behind this concept and striving to implement it.”
Trump’s advocacy for a “Gaza Riviera” has emboldened hardline factions within Israel, leading some to fantasize that their most radical aspirations for the ethnic cleansing of Palestinian territories may manifest. Katulis concluded by stating, “If annexation of the West Bank occurs, all bets are off.”
