The San Diego Padres have reportedly reached a four-year agreement worth $55 million with veteran pitcher Nick Pivetta. This contract features a signing bonus of $3 million, alongside a salary of $1 million for the upcoming season. Over the subsequent three years, he will earn guaranteed salaries of $19 million, $14 million, and $18 million, with the option to opt out after either the second or third year. This salary framework provides a strategic advantage to the Padres, helping them manage short-term payroll limitations; however, the average annual value of $13.75 million will be counted equally in their luxury tax calculations. The contract is pending a physical examination and has yet to be officially announced, as the Padres need to fill two spots on their 40-man roster.

Approaching his 32nd birthday this Friday, Pivetta emerged as one of the standout unsigned starting pitchers this offseason. He opted to reject a qualifying offer valued at $21.05 million from the Boston Red Sox earlier in the offseason, a move that reportedly played a significant role in delaying his market until Spring Training. While he ultimately secured a longer-term contract with a higher total guarantee than what he would have received from the qualifying offer, it does mean he faces a notable pay reduction for the upcoming year.

The 6’5″ right-handed pitcher began his career with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2017, where he faced challenges during his initial four years. A trade to the Boston Red Sox mid-2020 revitalized his career, and he has since become a reliable mid-rotation starter. Since the start of the 2021 season, Pivetta ranks 23rd in Major League Baseball with 623 innings pitched, achieving a cumulative ERA of 4.33, with annual figures ranging between 4.04 and 4.56.

Pivetta played a crucial role in Alex Cora’s rotation during his first two seasons in Boston. However, after a rough start to the 2023 season, he was moved to the bullpen in May, posting a 6.30 ERA over eight starts. His performance as a long reliever saw a remarkable turnaround, allowing only 1.98 earned runs per nine innings with a stellar 36.9% strikeout rate across his first 17 appearances. As the season progressed, Boston gradually shifted him back to a starting role, where he was consistently vital to the rotation.

An elbow flexor strain sidelined him in early April, which marked the first time in nearly seven years that Pivetta faced an injury list stint unrelated to illness. After returning to action a month later, he remained healthy for the rest of the season, finishing with a 4.14 ERA over 145 2/3 innings after making 27 appearances.

His performance statistics suggest he is a league-average starter, which could significantly enhance a Padres rotation in need of dependable innings. Pivetta recorded an impressive strikeout rate of 28.9% compared to a manageable walk rate of 6.1% last season, marking the third time in four years that he has achieved a strikeout rate well above average.

Nonetheless, longstanding issues with home run prevention have plagued Pivetta, who has consistently allowed a higher-than-average rate of home runs throughout his career. He’s also susceptible to hard contact. Fenway Park is often viewed as a hitter-friendly venue, but it has maintained a neutral stance regarding home runs in recent seasons. Petco Park, conversely, generally favors pitchers more than hitters.

Currently, Pivetta occupies the fourth position in Mike Shildt’s rotation depth chart, situated behind Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish. This bolstered rotation is better balanced now, particularly after the team lost Joe Musgrove to Tommy John surgery, allowing Pivetta to secure vital innings. There will still be one more spot available, with competition among Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron, and potential candidates for a role change like Bryan Hoeing and Stephen Kolek.

However, the current roster situation could change ahead of Opening Day. The Padres have faced financial restrictions throughout the offseason, marking the second consecutive year of constrained budget flexibility. They have signed three inexpensive one-year contracts to fill gaps in their lineup, including Elias Díaz for $3.5 million to take over as starting catcher, and Connor Joe and Jason Heyward to share left field duties at a combined cost of $2 million.

In year one, Pivetta’s salary will be quite modest in comparison. The contract’s implications extend beyond just dollar amounts, significantly affecting the team’s luxury tax situation. After managing to stay beneath the tax threshold in 2024, the Padres appear inclined to achieve a similar outcome this offseason. Their projected expenditures were just above this year’s $241 million base threshold, and Pivetta’s addition brings them close to the second tier. According to RosterResource, their tax estimate hovers around $258 million. The tax implications are relatively minimal, assessing a 20% tax on spending between $241 million and $261 million. As a result, the Padres will incur approximately $2.75 million in taxes for the Pivetta contract, with an overall tax bill of around $3.4 million projected.

While ownership seems prepared to absorb this minor tax obligation, the front office might explore trades to relieve payroll pressure in the coming weeks. Cease, who carries a $13.75 million tax number for his final arbitration season, has been the focus of trade discussions all offseason. King, valued at $7.75 million, has also appeared in trade rumors. Meanwhile, players like Robert Suarez and Luis Arraez have also been mentioned in trade scenarios. Trading Cease or King could raise questions about the rotation’s consistency, but any potential deal would likely include at least one reasonably priced MLB starter in return.

In addition to the financial implications, San Diego will also forfeit their second-round draft pick (#64 overall) and $500,000 from their 2026 international amateur bonus pool due to Pivetta declining the qualifying offer. Consequently, the Red Sox will receive a compensatory pick in the 2025 draft, which is expected to be the 77th overall selection.

Pivetta stands out as the sole free-agent starter to sign a four-year deal this offseason, while pitchers like Michael Wacha, Yusei Kikuchi, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, and Luis Severino all signed for three years but at higher annual values. All but Wacha received larger total guarantees. Severino and Manaea had both declined qualifying offers, while Wacha would have received one had he not re-signed with Kansas City right before the qualifying offer decisions were finalized. Pivetta stands to earn $23 million over the next two seasons, with his opt-out options coming at two years remaining at $32 million and, if he decides against the first opt-out, one year at $18 million.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan was the first to report on the signing and its financial details. Image courtesy of Imagn.